Industrial Production Index

Broad industrial output drives electricity demand from factories, semiconductor plants, and reshoring.

102.6Index

Trend YoY growth is -0.9%, slowing by 8 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 14 consecutive periods. Latest: +1.4%, 2.3 pp above trend, a 1.0σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 78 bps due to an tough comparison base from Feb 1.

Level

YoY %

y = 3.5% 8 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Rolling 1Y trend forecast

Forecast made inMar '25Apr '25May '25Jun '25Jul '25Aug '25Sep '25Oct '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27
Mar '25+0.2%+0.3%+0.4%+0.5%+0.6%+0.7%+0.7%+0.8%+0.9%+1.0%+1.1%+1.2%+1.3%+1.4%+1.5%+1.6%+1.6%+1.7%+1.8%+1.9%+2.0%+2.1%+2.2%+2.3%
Apr '25+0.4%+0.5%+0.6%+0.7%+0.8%+0.9%+1.0%+1.1%+1.2%+1.4%+1.5%+1.6%+1.7%+1.8%+1.9%+2.0%+2.1%+2.2%+2.3%+2.4%+2.5%+2.6%+2.7%
May '25+0.5%+0.6%+0.7%+0.9%+1.0%+1.1%+1.2%+1.3%+1.4%+1.5%+1.7%+1.8%+1.9%+2.0%+2.1%+2.2%+2.3%+2.5%+2.6%+2.7%+2.8%+2.9%
Jun '25+0.9%+1.0%+1.2%+1.4%+1.6%+1.8%+2.0%+2.1%+2.3%+2.5%+2.7%+2.9%+3.0%+3.2%+3.4%+3.6%+3.8%+4.0%+4.1%+4.3%+4.5%
Jul '25+1.3%+1.6%+1.8%+2.0%+2.2%+2.5%+2.7%+2.9%+3.1%+3.4%+3.6%+3.8%+4.0%+4.3%+4.5%+4.7%+4.9%+5.2%+5.4%+5.6%
Aug '25+1.6%+1.8%+2.1%+2.3%+2.6%+2.8%+3.0%+3.3%+3.5%+3.8%+4.0%+4.2%+4.5%+4.7%+5.0%+5.2%+5.5%+5.7%+6.0%
Sep '25+1.8%+2.1%+2.3%+2.5%+2.8%+3.0%+3.2%+3.5%+3.7%+4.0%+4.2%+4.4%+4.7%+4.9%+5.2%+5.4%+5.7%+5.9%
Oct '25+1.9%+2.2%+2.4%+2.6%+2.8%+3.0%+3.3%+3.5%+3.7%+3.9%+4.1%+4.4%+4.6%+4.8%+5.0%+5.2%+5.5%
Nov '25+2.0%+2.1%+2.3%+2.5%+2.6%+2.8%+3.0%+3.1%+3.3%+3.5%+3.6%+3.8%+4.0%+4.1%+4.3%+4.5%
Dec '25+1.8%+2.0%+2.1%+2.2%+2.3%+2.4%+2.6%+2.7%+2.8%+2.9%+3.0%+3.2%+3.3%+3.4%+3.5%
Jan '26+2.1%+2.3%+2.4%+2.6%+2.7%+2.9%+3.0%+3.2%+3.3%+3.5%+3.6%+3.8%+3.9%+4.1%
Feb '26+2.1%+2.2%+2.4%+2.5%+2.6%+2.8%+2.9%+3.0%+3.2%+3.3%+3.4%+3.6%+3.7%