Health Care ETF (XLV)
Market signal on healthcare demand — aging populations drive structural growth in medical spending.
$149.3
Trend YoY growth is -0.9%, slowing by 30 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 102 consecutive periods. Latest: +12.7%, 13.6 pp above trend, a 1.5σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 3.1 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 17.1% − 30 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +0.7% | -1.0% | -2.6% | -4.2% | -5.9% | -7.5% | -9.2% | -10.8% | -12.4% | -14.1% | -15.6% | -17.3% | -18.9% | -20.6% | -22.2% | -23.8% | -25.5% | -27.1% | -28.8% | -30.4% | -32.0% | -33.7% | -35.2% | -36.9% |
| Jun '25 | -3.8% | -5.9% | -8.1% | -10.2% | -12.3% | -14.5% | -16.5% | -18.7% | -20.9% | -22.8% | -25.0% | -27.1% | -29.2% | -31.3% | -33.5% | -35.6% | -37.7% | -39.9% | -42.0% | -44.1% | -46.3% | -48.2% | -50.4% | |
| Jul '25 | -7.3% | -9.8% | -12.3% | -14.7% | -17.2% | -19.6% | -22.1% | -24.6% | -26.8% | -29.3% | -31.7% | -34.2% | -36.7% | -39.1% | -41.6% | -44.1% | -46.6% | -49.0% | -51.5% | -54.0% | -56.2% | -58.7% | ||
| Aug '25 | -11.1% | -13.9% | -16.7% | -19.5% | -22.3% | -25.1% | -28.0% | -30.5% | -33.4% | -36.1% | -39.0% | -41.7% | -44.6% | -47.4% | -50.2% | -53.0% | -55.8% | -58.6% | -61.5% | -64.0% | -66.9% | |||
| Sep '25 | -13.5% | -16.3% | -19.1% | -21.9% | -24.7% | -27.6% | -30.2% | -33.0% | -35.8% | -38.6% | -41.4% | -44.2% | -47.1% | -49.9% | -52.7% | -55.5% | -58.3% | -61.2% | -63.8% | -66.6% | ||||
| Oct '25 | -13.4% | -15.9% | -18.2% | -20.7% | -23.1% | -25.3% | -27.8% | -30.1% | -32.6% | -34.9% | -37.4% | -39.8% | -42.2% | -44.6% | -47.0% | -49.4% | -51.9% | -54.1% | -56.5% | |||||
| Nov '25 | -10.6% | -12.2% | -13.8% | -15.4% | -16.8% | -18.4% | -20.0% | -21.6% | -23.1% | -24.7% | -26.3% | -27.9% | -29.5% | -31.0% | -32.6% | -34.2% | -35.7% | -37.3% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | -5.3% | -5.8% | -6.4% | -6.9% | -7.4% | -8.0% | -8.5% | -9.1% | -9.6% | -10.2% | -10.7% | -11.3% | -11.8% | -12.4% | -12.9% | -13.5% | -14.0% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +0.6% | +0.9% | +1.2% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +2.5% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.2% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.5% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +4.8% | +5.6% | +6.6% | +7.6% | +8.6% | +9.5% | +10.5% | +11.5% | +12.4% | +13.4% | +14.4% | +15.4% | +16.4% | +17.3% | +18.2% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +7.8% | +9.3% | +10.7% | +12.1% | +13.5% | +15.0% | +16.4% | +17.8% | +19.3% | +20.7% | +22.1% | +23.6% | +24.9% | +26.3% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +9.7% | +11.3% | +13.1% | +14.7% | +16.5% | +18.2% | +19.9% | +21.6% | +23.3% | +25.0% | +26.7% | +28.3% | +30.0% |