US GDP Growth
Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP — the broadest measure of economic output.
0.5%
Trend YoY growth is +3.0%, accelerating by 21 bps/month over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.4%, 4.4 pp below trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 1.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = −7.9% + 21 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| Dec '24 | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% | |
| Jan '25 | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.2% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -5.9% | -6.2% | -6.5% | -6.7% | -7.0% | -7.2% | ||
| Feb '25 | -2.2% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.2% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -5.9% | -6.2% | -6.5% | -6.7% | -7.0% | -7.2% | |||
| Mar '25 | -2.4% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.2% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -5.9% | -6.2% | -6.5% | -6.7% | -7.0% | -7.2% | ||||
| Apr '25 | -0.3% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | |||||
| May '25 | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +1.0% | +1.3% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.7% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | +1.3% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.7% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.7% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% |