Regular Gas Price
The most visible price in the economy — voters feel gas prices daily and blame the party in power.
4.12$/gal
Trend YoY growth is +10.8%, accelerating by 40.0 pp/year over the last 6M. Latest: +27.0%, 16.3 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 19.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 7.
Level
YoY %
y = −9.2% + 40.0 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($/gal)
Projected value ($/gal)
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | 3.12 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 3.03 | 3.19 | 3.27 | 3.37 | 3.40 | 3.49 | 3.55 | 3.56 | 3.65 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.73 | 3.48 | 3.58 | 3.74 | 5.16 | 5.40 | 4.64 | 128% |
| Oct '25 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 3.06 | 3.22 | 3.32 | 3.42 | 3.46 | 3.55 | 3.63 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.78 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.59 | 3.71 | 3.88 | 5.36 | 5.62 | 4.92 | 133% | |
| Nov '25 | 3.06 | 3.05 | 3.21 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.44 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 3.62 | 3.71 | 3.75 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 3.55 | 3.67 | 3.84 | 5.29 | 5.55 | 4.83 | 118% | ||
| Dec '25 | 2.81 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 3.24 | 3.25 | 3.32 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.31 | 3.45 | 4.73 | 4.94 | 4.03 | 99% | |||
| Jan '26 | 2.85 | 2.98 | 3.02 | 2.99 | 3.01 | 3.01 | 2.97 | 2.99 | 2.96 | 2.88 | 2.90 | 2.66 | 2.70 | 2.77 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 2.83 | 87% | ||||
| Feb '26 | 2.94 | 2.92 | 2.85 | 2.84 | 2.81 | 2.73 | 2.72 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 2.53 | 2.29 | 2.29 | 2.32 | 3.11 | 3.16 | 2.15 | 131% | |||||
| Mar '26 | 3.99 | 3.36 | 3.46 | 3.55 | 3.58 | 3.68 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.81 | 3.57 | 3.69 | 3.87 | 5.35 | 5.63 | 4.81 | 73% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | 4.12 | 3.59 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.89 | 3.96 | 3.95 | 4.09 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.22 | 5.86 | 6.19 | 5.51 | ||||||||
| May '26 | 3.59 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 3.89 | 3.96 | 3.95 | 4.09 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.22 | 5.86 | 6.19 | 5.51 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 | May '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | -1.9% | -2.9% | -1.0% | +0.9% | +2.8% | +4.8% | +6.5% | +8.4% | +10.3% | +12.2% | +14.1% | +16.0% | +18.0% | +19.8% | +21.8% | +23.6% | +25.6% | +27.5% | +29.3% | +31.2% | +33.1% | 128% |
| Oct '25 | -2.0% | -0.5% | +1.7% | +3.9% | +6.1% | +8.1% | +10.3% | +12.5% | +14.7% | +16.9% | +19.1% | +21.3% | +23.4% | +25.7% | +27.8% | +30.0% | +32.3% | +34.3% | +36.5% | +38.6% | 133% | |
| Nov '25 | +0.6% | +1.3% | +3.5% | +5.6% | +7.5% | +9.7% | +11.7% | +13.9% | +15.9% | +18.0% | +20.2% | +22.2% | +24.4% | +26.4% | +28.6% | +30.7% | +32.6% | +34.7% | +36.8% | 118% | ||
| Dec '25 | -6.5% | -0.2% | +1.2% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +5.1% | +6.5% | +7.8% | +9.2% | +10.6% | +11.9% | +13.3% | +14.6% | +16.0% | +17.4% | +18.6% | +20.0% | +21.3% | 99% | |||
| Jan '26 | -8.1% | -4.5% | -4.6% | -4.7% | -4.8% | -4.9% | -4.9% | -5.0% | -5.1% | -5.2% | -5.3% | -5.4% | -5.5% | -5.6% | -5.7% | -5.8% | -5.9% | 87% | ||||
| Feb '26 | -6.0% | -7.7% | -8.9% | -10.1% | -11.3% | -12.5% | -13.7% | -14.9% | -16.1% | -17.3% | -18.5% | -19.7% | -20.9% | -22.0% | -23.2% | -24.4% | 131% | |||||
| Mar '26 | +26.2% | +7.2% | +9.6% | +12.1% | +14.5% | +17.0% | +19.5% | +21.9% | +24.4% | +26.8% | +29.3% | +31.8% | +34.1% | +36.6% | +39.0% | 73% | ||||||
| Apr '26 | +27.0% | +13.5% | +16.9% | +20.2% | +23.6% | +27.0% | +30.2% | +33.6% | +36.9% | +40.3% | +43.7% | +46.8% | +50.2% | +53.4% | ||||||||
| May '26 | +13.5% | +16.9% | +20.2% | +23.6% | +27.0% | +30.2% | +33.6% | +36.9% | +40.3% | +43.7% | +46.8% | +50.2% | +53.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 6M window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.