Fed Balance Sheet
Total Federal Reserve assets — monetization of debt through asset purchases suppresses yields.
6.7M$M
Trend YoY growth is -15.1%, slowing by 47 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 13 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.2%, 14.9 pp above trend, a 2.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 83 bps due to an easy comparison base from Mar 26.
Level
YoY %
y = 13.4% − 47 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | -9.5% | -9.2% | -8.8% | -8.5% | -8.1% | -7.8% | -7.4% | -7.1% | -6.7% | -6.4% | -6.1% | -5.7% | -5.4% | -5.0% | -4.7% | -4.3% | -4.0% | -3.6% | -3.3% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.2% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| Jun '25 | -8.9% | -8.5% | -8.1% | -7.7% | -7.3% | -6.9% | -6.6% | -6.2% | -5.8% | -5.4% | -5.0% | -4.7% | -4.3% | -3.9% | -3.5% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.2% | -0.8% | -0.4% | |
| Jul '25 | -8.3% | -7.9% | -7.5% | -7.1% | -6.7% | -6.3% | -5.9% | -5.5% | -5.1% | -4.7% | -4.3% | -3.9% | -3.5% | -3.0% | -2.6% | -2.2% | -1.8% | -1.4% | -1.0% | -0.6% | -0.2% | +0.2% | ||
| Aug '25 | -7.8% | -7.4% | -6.9% | -6.5% | -6.1% | -5.7% | -5.3% | -4.9% | -4.5% | -4.0% | -3.6% | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.4% | -2.0% | -1.5% | -1.1% | -0.7% | -0.3% | +0.1% | +0.5% | |||
| Sep '25 | -7.3% | -6.9% | -6.4% | -6.0% | -5.6% | -5.2% | -4.8% | -4.3% | -3.9% | -3.5% | -3.0% | -2.6% | -2.2% | -1.8% | -1.3% | -0.9% | -0.5% | +0.0% | +0.4% | +0.8% | ||||
| Oct '25 | -6.7% | -6.2% | -5.7% | -5.3% | -4.8% | -4.4% | -3.9% | -3.4% | -3.0% | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.1% | -0.6% | -0.2% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +1.7% | |||||
| Nov '25 | -6.1% | -5.6% | -5.1% | -4.6% | -4.1% | -3.6% | -3.1% | -2.6% | -2.1% | -1.6% | -1.1% | -0.6% | -0.1% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +1.8% | +2.3% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | -5.4% | -4.9% | -4.3% | -3.8% | -3.3% | -2.8% | -2.3% | -1.7% | -1.2% | -0.7% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +2.4% | +3.0% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | -4.4% | -3.7% | -3.2% | -2.6% | -2.0% | -1.4% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +1.0% | +1.6% | +2.2% | +2.8% | +3.4% | +4.0% | +4.6% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | -3.6% | -3.0% | -2.3% | -1.7% | -1.1% | -0.4% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +2.1% | +2.7% | +3.4% | +4.0% | +4.6% | +5.3% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | -2.7% | -2.1% | -1.4% | -0.7% | -0.1% | +0.6% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +2.6% | +3.3% | +4.0% | +4.6% | +5.2% | +5.9% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | -1.4% | -0.7% | +0.1% | +0.8% | +1.6% | +2.4% | +3.1% | +3.9% | +4.6% | +5.4% | +6.2% | +6.8% | +7.6% |