Energy Consumption
Ratio of China's primary energy consumption to US primary energy consumption. 1.0 = parity.
1.6×
Trend YoY growth is +0.1%, accelerating by 0 bps/month over the last 32Y. Latest: +0.1%, 8 bps above trend, a 2.0σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.0% + 0 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (×)
Projected value (×)
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 348% |
| '13 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 200% | |
| '14 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.8 | 284% | ||
| '15 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.8 | -3.4 | 381% | |||
| '16 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 120% | ||||
| '17 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 180% | |||||
| '18 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 100% | ||||||
| '19 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 145% | |||||||
| '20 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 264% | ||||||||
| '21 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 189% | |||||||||
| '22 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 100% | ||||||||||
| '23 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||
| '24 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | '30 | '31 | '32 | '33 | '34 | '35 | '36 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '12 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 348% |
| '13 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 200% | |
| '14 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 284% | ||
| '15 | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 381% | |||
| '16 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 120% | ||||
| '17 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 180% | |||||
| '18 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | ||||||
| '19 | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 145% | |||||||
| '20 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | 264% | ||||||||
| '21 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 189% | |||||||||
| '22 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 100% | ||||||||||
| '23 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | ||||||||||||
| '24 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% |