Employment Rate, 55–64
Tracks how much the near-retirement cohort remains economically active as populations age.
64.4%
Trend YoY growth is -0.3%, slowing by 5 bps/month over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.1%, 45 bps above trend, a 0.6σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 70 bps due to an easy comparison base from Sep 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = 2.3% − 5 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct '24 | -0.7% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.7% | -2.8% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.2% | -3.3% | -3.4% | -3.6% |
| Nov '24 | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -2.4% | -2.5% | |
| Dec '24 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.4% | ||
| Jan '25 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||
| Feb '25 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | ||||
| Mar '25 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | |||||
| Apr '25 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1% | ||||||
| May '25 | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +3.8% | |||||||
| Jun '25 | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | ||||||||
| Jul '25 | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.4% | |||||||||
| Aug '25 | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.7% | ||||||||||
| Sep '25 | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.7% |