Gross Federal Debt (% of GDP)
Total public debt including intragovernmental holdings — the headline debt-to-GDP ratio.
122.6% of GDP
Trend YoY growth is +2.9%, accelerating by 14 bps/month over the last 4Y. Latest: +1.1%, 1.7 pp below trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 63 bps due to an tough comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = −4.3% + 14 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.1% | -5.4% | -5.8% | -6.1% |
| Dec '24 | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -4.8% | -5.1% | -5.4% | -5.8% | -6.1% | |
| Jan '25 | +0.6% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -3.5% | -3.7% | ||
| Feb '25 | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -3.5% | -3.7% | |||
| Mar '25 | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.9% | -1.1% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -3.5% | -3.7% | ||||
| Apr '25 | -0.7% | -1.0% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -6.0% | -6.4% | -6.7% | |||||
| May '25 | -1.0% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -6.0% | -6.4% | -6.7% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.4% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -6.0% | -6.4% | -6.7% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +0.0% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.8% | -1.9% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.8% | -1.9% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -1.8% | -1.9% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% |