WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices propagate through energy costs, transportation, and inflation — an upstream driver of electricity costs.
$114.0
Trend YoY growth is -41.1%, slowing by 1.9 pp/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 212 consecutive periods. Latest: +86.8%, 127.9 pp above trend, a 3.3σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 12.2 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 7.
Level
YoY %
y = 75.6% − 1.9 pp/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | -20.5% | -22.9% | -25.3% | -27.8% | -30.2% | -32.6% | -35.1% | -37.5% | -39.9% | -42.4% | -44.6% | -47.1% | -49.5% | -52.0% | -54.3% | -56.8% | -59.3% | -61.7% | -64.1% | -66.5% | -69.0% | -71.4% | -73.7% | -76.1% |
| Jun '25 | -21.5% | -23.7% | -25.9% | -28.0% | -30.2% | -32.4% | -34.5% | -36.7% | -38.9% | -40.9% | -43.1% | -45.2% | -47.4% | -49.5% | -51.7% | -53.9% | -56.0% | -58.2% | -60.4% | -62.6% | -64.7% | -66.7% | -68.9% | |
| Jul '25 | -19.4% | -20.8% | -22.2% | -23.5% | -24.9% | -26.2% | -27.6% | -28.9% | -30.2% | -31.5% | -32.9% | -34.2% | -35.6% | -36.9% | -38.3% | -39.6% | -41.0% | -42.3% | -43.7% | -45.1% | -46.3% | -47.7% | ||
| Aug '25 | -17.5% | -18.3% | -19.0% | -19.8% | -20.6% | -21.3% | -22.1% | -22.8% | -23.6% | -24.4% | -25.1% | -25.9% | -26.7% | -27.5% | -28.2% | -29.0% | -29.8% | -30.5% | -31.3% | -32.0% | -32.8% | |||
| Sep '25 | -17.0% | -17.6% | -18.2% | -18.8% | -19.4% | -20.0% | -20.6% | -21.2% | -21.8% | -22.4% | -22.9% | -23.5% | -24.1% | -24.7% | -25.3% | -25.9% | -26.5% | -27.1% | -27.7% | -28.3% | ||||
| Oct '25 | -17.3% | -18.1% | -18.8% | -19.6% | -20.4% | -21.1% | -21.9% | -22.7% | -23.5% | -24.2% | -25.0% | -25.8% | -26.6% | -27.3% | -28.1% | -28.9% | -29.7% | -30.4% | -31.2% | |||||
| Nov '25 | -18.3% | -19.3% | -20.3% | -21.2% | -22.1% | -23.1% | -24.0% | -25.0% | -25.9% | -26.9% | -27.9% | -28.8% | -29.8% | -30.8% | -31.7% | -32.7% | -33.6% | -34.6% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | -17.7% | -18.5% | -19.3% | -20.0% | -20.7% | -21.5% | -22.3% | -23.0% | -23.8% | -24.5% | -25.3% | -26.1% | -26.8% | -27.6% | -28.3% | -29.0% | -29.8% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | -17.5% | -18.0% | -18.4% | -18.9% | -19.4% | -19.9% | -20.3% | -20.8% | -21.3% | -21.8% | -22.2% | -22.7% | -23.2% | -23.7% | -24.1% | -24.6% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | -15.7% | -15.6% | -15.5% | -15.4% | -15.2% | -15.1% | -15.0% | -14.9% | -14.8% | -14.6% | -14.5% | -14.4% | -14.3% | -14.1% | -14.0% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | -10.6% | -9.7% | -8.9% | -8.0% | -7.1% | -6.2% | -5.3% | -4.4% | -3.5% | -2.7% | -1.8% | -0.9% | +0.0% | +0.9% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +6.6% | +9.6% | +12.7% | +15.6% | +18.7% | +21.7% | +24.7% | +27.8% | +30.7% | +33.8% | +36.8% | +39.6% | +42.6% |