High Yield Credit Spreads
Measures financial stress by comparing risky corporate debt to government bonds.
2.9%
Trend YoY growth is -0.0%, accelerating by 1 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 10 consecutive periods. Latest: -1.4%, 1.4 pp below trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.6 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 8.
Level
YoY Change
y = −0.8% + 1 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +2.9% |
| Jun '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.7% | |
| Jul '25 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% | ||
| Aug '25 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | |||
| Sep '25 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% |