CPI Inflation (YoY)
Inflation erodes the real value of outstanding debt — the historically preferred resolution for sovereign debt crises.
2.7%
Trend YoY growth is -2.8%, slowing by 10 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 18 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.3%, 2.5 pp above trend, a 0.9σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Feb 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = 3.2% − 10 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar '25 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| Apr '25 | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | |
| May '25 | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | ||
| Jun '25 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | |||
| Jul '25 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | ||||
| Aug '25 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | |||||
| Sep '25 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | ||||||
| Oct '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | |||||||
| Nov '25 | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | ||||||||
| Dec '25 | +0.4% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | |||||||||
| Jan '26 | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | ||||||||||
| Feb '26 | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% |