Core PCE Inflation
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices.
3.0%
Trend YoY growth is -1.6%, slowing by 6 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 20 consecutive periods. Latest: +0.0%, 1.6 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 73 bps due to an tough comparison base from Feb 1.
Level
YoY Change
y = 2.1% − 6 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.0% |
| Apr '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.2% | +3.4% | |
| May '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.7% | ||
| Jun '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.2% | |||
| Jul '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% | ||||
| Aug '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | |||||
| Sep '25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | ||||||
| Oct '25 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | |||||||
| Nov '25 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | ||||||||
| Dec '25 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | |||||||||
| Jan '26 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | ||||||||||
| Feb '26 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% |