Copper
Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.
$5.7
Trend YoY growth is +5.6%, slowing by 23 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +33.0%, 27.4 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 19.8% − 23 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +10.4% | +9.6% | +8.8% | +8.0% | +7.1% | +6.3% | +5.5% | +4.7% | +3.9% | +3.1% | +2.4% | +1.6% | +0.8% | +0.0% | -0.8% | -1.7% | -2.5% | -3.3% | -4.1% | -4.9% | -5.7% | -6.5% | -7.2% | -8.0% |
| Jun '25 | +8.2% | +7.4% | +6.7% | +5.9% | +5.2% | +4.4% | +3.7% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.0% | -0.7% | -1.5% | -2.2% | -3.0% | -3.7% | -4.5% | -5.2% | -6.0% | -6.7% | -7.4% | -8.2% | |
| Jul '25 | +8.7% | +8.1% | +7.6% | +7.1% | +6.5% | +6.0% | +5.5% | +4.9% | +4.4% | +3.9% | +3.4% | +2.8% | +2.3% | +1.8% | +1.2% | +0.7% | +0.1% | -0.4% | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.5% | ||
| Aug '25 | +12.3% | +12.2% | +12.0% | +11.9% | +11.8% | +11.6% | +11.5% | +11.3% | +11.2% | +11.0% | +10.9% | +10.8% | +10.6% | +10.5% | +10.3% | +10.2% | +10.0% | +9.9% | +9.7% | +9.6% | +9.5% | |||
| Sep '25 | +10.5% | +10.1% | +9.6% | +9.2% | +8.8% | +8.3% | +7.9% | +7.5% | +7.0% | +6.6% | +6.2% | +5.7% | +5.3% | +4.8% | +4.4% | +4.0% | +3.5% | +3.1% | +2.7% | +2.2% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +10.2% | +9.8% | +9.5% | +9.1% | +8.8% | +8.5% | +8.1% | +7.8% | +7.4% | +7.1% | +6.7% | +6.4% | +6.0% | +5.7% | +5.3% | +5.0% | +4.6% | +4.3% | +3.9% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +12.7% | +12.8% | +13.0% | +13.2% | +13.3% | +13.5% | +13.7% | +13.8% | +14.0% | +14.1% | +14.3% | +14.5% | +14.6% | +14.8% | +15.0% | +15.1% | +15.3% | +15.4% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +16.0% | +16.6% | +17.1% | +17.6% | +18.1% | +18.7% | +19.2% | +19.7% | +20.3% | +20.8% | +21.3% | +21.9% | +22.4% | +22.9% | +23.5% | +24.0% | +24.5% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +21.7% | +22.9% | +23.9% | +25.0% | +26.1% | +27.3% | +28.4% | +29.5% | +30.6% | +31.7% | +32.9% | +34.0% | +35.1% | +36.2% | +37.2% | +38.4% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +27.5% | +29.1% | +31.0% | +32.7% | +34.6% | +36.3% | +38.2% | +40.0% | +41.7% | +43.6% | +45.3% | +47.2% | +49.0% | +50.6% | +52.5% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +30.6% | +32.9% | +35.1% | +37.4% | +39.7% | +42.0% | +44.2% | +46.5% | +48.8% | +51.0% | +53.3% | +55.6% | +57.6% | +59.9% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +30.5% | +32.8% | +35.1% | +37.4% | +39.8% | +42.1% | +44.4% | +46.7% | +49.0% | +51.3% | +53.7% | +55.8% | +58.1% |