Copper

Industrial metal demand tracks construction and manufacturing activity.

$5.7

Trend YoY growth is +5.6%, slowing by 23 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 11 consecutive periods. Latest: +33.0%, 27.4 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 10.9 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 9.

Level

YoY %

y = 19.8% 23 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Rolling 1Y trend forecast

Forecast made inMay '25Jun '25Jul '25Aug '25Sep '25Oct '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26Dec '26Jan '27Feb '27Mar '27Apr '27
May '25+10.4%+9.6%+8.8%+8.0%+7.1%+6.3%+5.5%+4.7%+3.9%+3.1%+2.4%+1.6%+0.8%+0.0%-0.8%-1.7%-2.5%-3.3%-4.1%-4.9%-5.7%-6.5%-7.2%-8.0%
Jun '25+8.2%+7.4%+6.7%+5.9%+5.2%+4.4%+3.7%+2.9%+2.2%+1.5%+0.7%+0.0%-0.7%-1.5%-2.2%-3.0%-3.7%-4.5%-5.2%-6.0%-6.7%-7.4%-8.2%
Jul '25+8.7%+8.1%+7.6%+7.1%+6.5%+6.0%+5.5%+4.9%+4.4%+3.9%+3.4%+2.8%+2.3%+1.8%+1.2%+0.7%+0.1%-0.4%-0.9%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%
Aug '25+12.3%+12.2%+12.0%+11.9%+11.8%+11.6%+11.5%+11.3%+11.2%+11.0%+10.9%+10.8%+10.6%+10.5%+10.3%+10.2%+10.0%+9.9%+9.7%+9.6%+9.5%
Sep '25+10.5%+10.1%+9.6%+9.2%+8.8%+8.3%+7.9%+7.5%+7.0%+6.6%+6.2%+5.7%+5.3%+4.8%+4.4%+4.0%+3.5%+3.1%+2.7%+2.2%
Oct '25+10.2%+9.8%+9.5%+9.1%+8.8%+8.5%+8.1%+7.8%+7.4%+7.1%+6.7%+6.4%+6.0%+5.7%+5.3%+5.0%+4.6%+4.3%+3.9%
Nov '25+12.7%+12.8%+13.0%+13.2%+13.3%+13.5%+13.7%+13.8%+14.0%+14.1%+14.3%+14.5%+14.6%+14.8%+15.0%+15.1%+15.3%+15.4%
Dec '25+16.0%+16.6%+17.1%+17.6%+18.1%+18.7%+19.2%+19.7%+20.3%+20.8%+21.3%+21.9%+22.4%+22.9%+23.5%+24.0%+24.5%
Jan '26+21.7%+22.9%+23.9%+25.0%+26.1%+27.3%+28.4%+29.5%+30.6%+31.7%+32.9%+34.0%+35.1%+36.2%+37.2%+38.4%
Feb '26+27.5%+29.1%+31.0%+32.7%+34.6%+36.3%+38.2%+40.0%+41.7%+43.6%+45.3%+47.2%+49.0%+50.6%+52.5%
Mar '26+30.6%+32.9%+35.1%+37.4%+39.7%+42.0%+44.2%+46.5%+48.8%+51.0%+53.3%+55.6%+57.6%+59.9%
Apr '26+30.5%+32.8%+35.1%+37.4%+39.8%+42.1%+44.4%+46.7%+49.0%+51.3%+53.7%+55.8%+58.1%