Commodities (PDBC)
Broad commodity basket spanning energy, metals, and agriculture — a direct inflation input.
$17.1
Trend YoY growth is -12.6%, slowing by 92 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 200 consecutive periods. Latest: +42.2%, 54.8 pp above trend, a 3.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 6.0 pp due to an easy comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 43.4% − 92 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -3.2% | -3.5% | -3.8% | -4.1% | -4.4% | -4.7% | -5.0% | -5.3% | -5.6% | -5.9% | -6.2% | -6.5% | -6.8% | -7.1% | -7.4% | -7.7% | -8.0% | -8.2% | -8.5% |
| Jun '25 | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -2.4% | -2.5% | -2.6% | -2.7% | -2.8% | -3.0% | -3.1% | -3.2% | -3.3% | -3.4% | -3.5% | -3.7% | -3.8% | -3.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% | -4.2% | -4.3% | |
| Jul '25 | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | ||
| Aug '25 | +0.7% | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.3% | +3.6% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.7% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.8% | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.9% | +7.3% | +7.6% | +8.0% | |||
| Sep '25 | +1.6% | +1.9% | +2.3% | +2.7% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.5% | +4.9% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +6.0% | +6.4% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.5% | +7.9% | +8.2% | +8.6% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +1.8% | +2.1% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +4.9% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.7% | +6.0% | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.8% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +1.9% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +3.8% | +4.0% | +4.2% | +4.4% | +4.6% | +4.8% | +5.0% | +5.2% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +4.8% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.7% | +5.9% | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.3% | +7.6% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +4.6% | +5.1% | +5.5% | +6.0% | +6.4% | +6.9% | +7.3% | +7.8% | +8.2% | +8.7% | +9.1% | +9.6% | +10.0% | +10.5% | +10.9% | +11.3% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +7.4% | +8.2% | +9.1% | +10.0% | +10.9% | +11.7% | +12.6% | +13.5% | +14.4% | +15.3% | +16.1% | +17.0% | +17.9% | +18.7% | +19.6% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +11.5% | +13.0% | +14.5% | +16.0% | +17.4% | +18.9% | +20.4% | +21.8% | +23.3% | +24.8% | +26.3% | +27.8% | +29.1% | +30.6% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +20.9% | +23.5% | +26.1% | +28.7% | +31.3% | +33.9% | +36.5% | +39.1% | +41.7% | +44.3% | +47.0% | +49.4% | +52.0% |