U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
Trend YoY growth is +4.9%, accelerating by 6 bps/month over the last 4Y. Latest: +6.1%, 1.2 pp above trend, a 0.8σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 2.3% + 6 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '24 | Jun '24 | Jul '24 | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '24 | +4.2% | +4.5% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +5.2% | +5.4% | +5.7% | +5.9% | +6.2% | +6.4% | +6.7% | +6.9% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.6% | +7.9% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.6% | +9.8% |
| Jun '24 | +4.5% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +5.2% | +5.4% | +5.7% | +5.9% | +6.2% | +6.4% | +6.7% | +6.9% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.6% | +7.9% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.6% | +9.8% | |
| Jul '24 | +5.3% | +5.6% | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.7% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.5% | +8.8% | +9.2% | +9.5% | +9.9% | +10.2% | +10.6% | +10.9% | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.0% | +12.3% | +12.7% | ||
| Aug '24 | +5.6% | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.7% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.5% | +8.8% | +9.2% | +9.5% | +9.9% | +10.2% | +10.6% | +10.9% | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.0% | +12.3% | +12.7% | |||
| Sep '24 | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.7% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.5% | +8.8% | +9.2% | +9.5% | +9.9% | +10.2% | +10.6% | +10.9% | +11.3% | +11.7% | +12.0% | +12.3% | +12.7% | ||||
| Oct '24 | +6.2% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.5% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.4% | +9.7% | +10.1% | +10.4% | +10.7% | +11.0% | +11.4% | +11.7% | +12.0% | |||||
| Nov '24 | +6.5% | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.5% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.4% | +9.7% | +10.1% | +10.4% | +10.7% | +11.0% | +11.4% | +11.7% | +12.0% | ||||||
| Dec '24 | +6.8% | +7.1% | +7.5% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.4% | +9.7% | +10.1% | +10.4% | +10.7% | +11.0% | +11.4% | +11.7% | +12.0% | |||||||
| Jan '25 | +6.3% | +6.6% | +6.7% | +7.0% | +7.2% | +7.4% | +7.6% | +7.8% | +8.0% | +8.2% | +8.4% | +8.7% | +8.9% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.5% | ||||||||
| Feb '25 | +6.6% | +6.7% | +7.0% | +7.2% | +7.4% | +7.6% | +7.8% | +8.0% | +8.2% | +8.4% | +8.7% | +8.9% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.5% | |||||||||
| Mar '25 | +6.7% | +7.0% | +7.2% | +7.4% | +7.6% | +7.8% | +8.0% | +8.2% | +8.4% | +8.7% | +8.9% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +9.5% | ||||||||||
| Apr '25 | +6.2% | +6.3% | +6.4% | +6.5% | +6.5% | +6.6% | +6.7% | +6.8% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +7.0% | +7.1% | +7.2% |