Bank Stocks (KBE)
Banks transmit credit into the economy; weakness signals tightening lending conditions.
$63.6
Trend YoY growth is +7.4%, slowing by 30 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 78 consecutive periods. Latest: +40.9%, 33.4 pp above trend, a 1.1σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 3.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr 9.
Level
YoY %
y = 25.7% − 30 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | +25.4% | +23.8% | +22.3% | +20.7% | +19.2% | +17.6% | +16.1% | +14.5% | +12.9% | +11.4% | +9.9% | +8.4% | +6.8% | +5.3% | +3.7% | +2.2% | +0.6% | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.0% | -5.6% | -7.2% | -8.6% | -10.2% |
| Jun '25 | +21.6% | +19.6% | +17.6% | +15.6% | +13.6% | +11.6% | +9.7% | +7.7% | +5.7% | +3.9% | +1.8% | -0.1% | -2.1% | -4.1% | -6.1% | -8.1% | -10.0% | -12.0% | -14.0% | -16.0% | -18.0% | -19.8% | -21.8% | |
| Jul '25 | +18.6% | +16.1% | +13.6% | +11.1% | +8.6% | +6.2% | +3.7% | +1.2% | -1.0% | -3.5% | -5.9% | -8.4% | -10.8% | -13.3% | -15.8% | -18.3% | -20.7% | -23.2% | -25.7% | -28.2% | -30.4% | -32.9% | ||
| Aug '25 | +12.3% | +8.9% | +5.7% | +2.3% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -7.8% | -10.9% | -14.2% | -17.5% | -20.9% | -24.2% | -27.6% | -31.0% | -34.3% | -37.7% | -40.9% | -44.3% | -47.7% | -50.8% | -54.2% | |||
| Sep '25 | +9.6% | +6.1% | +2.6% | -0.9% | -4.5% | -8.0% | -11.2% | -14.8% | -18.3% | -21.8% | -25.3% | -28.9% | -32.4% | -35.9% | -39.5% | -42.9% | -46.5% | -50.1% | -53.3% | -56.9% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +8.9% | +5.6% | +2.4% | -0.9% | -4.2% | -7.2% | -10.5% | -13.7% | -17.0% | -20.2% | -23.5% | -26.8% | -30.0% | -33.3% | -36.5% | -39.8% | -43.1% | -46.1% | -49.4% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +7.6% | +5.0% | +2.2% | -0.5% | -3.0% | -5.7% | -8.3% | -11.1% | -13.7% | -16.4% | -19.2% | -21.8% | -24.6% | -27.2% | -29.9% | -32.7% | -35.1% | -37.9% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +5.8% | +3.6% | +1.3% | -0.7% | -2.9% | -5.1% | -7.3% | -9.5% | -11.7% | -13.9% | -16.1% | -18.3% | -20.5% | -22.7% | -24.9% | -27.0% | -29.2% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | +6.0% | +4.0% | +2.2% | +0.3% | -1.7% | -3.7% | -5.6% | -7.6% | -9.6% | -11.5% | -13.5% | -15.4% | -17.4% | -19.4% | -21.2% | -23.2% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | +7.5% | +6.2% | +4.8% | +3.4% | +2.0% | +0.6% | -0.9% | -2.3% | -3.7% | -5.1% | -6.5% | -7.9% | -9.4% | -10.7% | -12.1% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | +10.0% | +9.2% | +8.5% | +7.7% | +7.0% | +6.2% | +5.5% | +4.7% | +4.0% | +3.2% | +2.5% | +1.7% | +1.0% | +0.2% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | +11.7% | +11.3% | +10.8% | +10.3% | +9.8% | +9.3% | +8.9% | +8.4% | +7.9% | +7.4% | +7.0% | +6.5% | +6.0% |