US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The global discount rate that reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy.
4.3%
Trend YoY growth is -0.1%, slowing by 3 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 20 consecutive periods. Latest: -0.1%, 5 bps above trend, a 0.1σ deviation.
Level
YoY Change
y = 1.4% − 3 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 | Jan '27 | Feb '27 | Mar '27 | Apr '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May '25 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| Jun '25 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | |
| Jul '25 | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | ||
| Aug '25 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.3% | |||
| Sep '25 | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.4% | ||||
| Oct '25 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | |||||
| Nov '25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| Dec '25 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | |||||||
| Jan '26 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | ||||||||
| Feb '26 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | |||||||||
| Mar '26 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% | ||||||||||
| Apr '26 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% |