Key Insight

San Francisco's rental market is staging a dramatic and historically anomalous recovery, with rents surging at +12.8% YoY — a 1.5σ deviation above trend and 9.2 pp above the long-run +3.6% growth rate — even as home prices remain essentially flat and the city continues to lose population.

Generated by Claude on Apr 15, 2026

San Francisco, CA

Housing, demographics, economy, and public safety data for San Francisco, California.

Updated Apr 1.

Exclude COVID

Housing

Median Home Sale Price

Zillow Home Value Index for middle-tier homes.

▲ +0.6% YoY

$1.4M

Trend YoY growth is +0.6%, slowing by 32 bps/year over the last 25Y. Latest: +5.0%, 4.4 pp above trend, a 0.79σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.9 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would rise to +6.0% by Jul '26 as comparisons ease.

Level

YoY %

y = 8.8% 32 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Median Rent

Zillow Observed Rent Index for all home types.

▲ +4.4% YoY

4.0kUSD/mo

Trend YoY growth is +4.4%, accelerating by 53 bps/year over the last 10Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 16 consecutive periods. Latest: +15.1%, 10.7 pp above trend, a 1.8σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Apr '25. At current levels, YoY would fall to +10.8% by Jul '26 as comparisons tighten.

Level

YoY %

y = −1.0% + 53 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Demographics

Economy

Unemployment Rate

Share of the labor force unemployed and seeking work.

San Francisco County (FRED LAUS)

▼ -0.2% YoY

3.7%

Trend YoY growth is -0.2%, slowing by 1.5 pp/year over the last 20Y. Latest: -0.4%, 20 bps below trend, a 0.09σ deviation.

Level

YoY Change (bps)

y = 0.1% 2 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Public Safety