AI transition
Tracking general capability, task substitution in real work, labor market restructuring, and the physical industrialization of AI compute.
Last updated: Apr 2, 2026, 9:23 PM
AI Revenue
Cloud AI & Compute Revenue
AI Revenue
Combined quarterly revenue: AWS + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud + Google Cloud + Nvidia Data Center
$148.5B$B
+$101.5B $B vs 10Y ago
Level
YoY %
+38.3%
Frontier Lab Revenue (OpenAI + Anthropic)
AI Revenue
Combined estimated quarterly revenue of the two leading frontier AI labs
$10.8B$B
+$10.7B $B vs 10Y ago
Level
YoY %
+330.0%
Industrialization
Aggregate Hyperscaler Capex
Industrialization
Combined quarterly capital expenditure of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
$112.5B$B
+$85.8B $B vs 10Y ago
Level
YoY %
+111.9%
U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales
Industrialization
Quarterly U.S. commercial electricity sales — macro proxy for whether AI compute is becoming a physical load
130.2TWh
+17.0 TWh vs 10Y ago
Level
YoY %
+6.1%
General Capability
Frontier 50% Task-Completion Time
General Capability
How long a task can be (in minutes) for frontier models to complete it 50% of the time
718.8minutes
+715.6 minutes vs 10Y ago
Level
YoY %
+1090.3%
Best SWE-bench Verified Score
General Capability
Highest score resolving real GitHub issues autonomously — core software engineering capability
80.9%
+78.9 % vs 10Y ago
Level
Change (bps)
+1060 bps
Best Humanity's Last Exam Score
General Capability
Highest score on expert-level questions spanning all academic domains — broadest general reasoning test
37.5%
+34.2 % vs 10Y ago
Level
Change (bps)
+3420 bps
Labor Market
AI Job Postings Share
Labor Market
AI-related job postings as a share of all postings — firms reorganizing workflows around AI
3.8%
+3.2 % vs 10Y ago
Level
Change (bps)
+70 bps
Firm AI Adoption Rate
Labor Market
Share of firms reporting use of AI in business functions — experimentation to operations
78.0%
+58.0 % vs 10Y ago
Level
Change (bps)
+600 bps