Property Crime Rate
Property crimes (burglary, theft, vehicle theft) per 100k residents.
2.9kper 100k
Trend YoY growth is +80.6%, slowing by 16.5 pp/year over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 6 consecutive periods. Latest: -6.6%, 87.2 pp below trend, a 0.37σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 89.5 pp due to an easy comparison base from 2024.
Level
YoY %
y = 163.3% − 16.5 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (per 100k)
Projected value (per 100k)
| Forecast made in | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 331.5 | -258.1 | -5.1k | -7.3k | -10.6k | -12.4k | 64.9k | -397.2k | 2.8M | 3765% |
| 2022 | 3.1k | 36.0k | 45.0k | 61.1k | 68.9k | 1.9M | 62.9M | 2.3B | 20957% | |
| 2023 | 2.8k | 14.4k | 18.2k | 19.6k | 151.4k | 1.3M | 12.4M | 6420% | ||
| 2024 | 3.1k | 8.5k | 8.2k | 24.2k | 74.1k | 233.5k | 2788% | |||
| 2025 | 2.9k | 1.4k | -220.8 | 178.5 | -261.3 | |||||
| 2026 | 1.4k | -220.8 | 178.5 | -261.3 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -88.9% | -177.8% | -266.8% | -355.8% | -445.0% | -533.9% | -622.9% | -711.8% | -801.0% | 3765% |
| 2022 | +826.5% | +1071.0% | +1483.3% | +1896.7% | +2309.0% | +2721.4% | +3133.7% | +3547.1% | 20957% | |
| 2023 | -7.4% | +405.7% | +495.1% | +584.3% | +673.5% | +762.7% | +852.1% | 6420% | ||
| 2024 | +7.7% | +176.6% | +186.3% | +195.9% | +205.6% | +215.2% | 2788% | |||
| 2025 | -6.6% | -50.1% | -115.5% | -180.8% | -246.4% | |||||
| 2026 | -50.1% | -115.5% | -180.8% | -246.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 5Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.