Other Financial Assets

Miscellaneous financial assets including insurance reserves, equity in GSEs, and other claims

42.17$T

Trend YoY growth is +2.5%, slowing by 14 bps/year over the last 55Y. Deviations have remained below trend for 16 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.4%, 12 bps below trend, a 0.0σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would fall to +1.6% by Apr '26 as comparisons tighten.

Level

YoY %

y = 10.2% 14 bps/yr · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Projected value by forecast vintage ($T)

Projected value ($T)

Forecast made inQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27MAPE
Q1 '2541.3141.1741.4841.7541.8742.0742.5642.7942.5043%
Q2 '2541.4941.9942.3742.6042.9043.5043.8344.4012%
Q3 '2541.9642.5942.8743.2143.8744.2645.1745%
Q4 '2542.1742.7043.0343.6644.0244.73
Q1 '2642.7043.0343.6644.0244.73

YoY change forecast

Forecast made inQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27MAPE
Q1 '25+2.5%+1.3%+1.3%+1.3%+1.4%+1.4%+1.4%+1.5%+1.5%43%
Q2 '25+2.0%+2.6%+2.8%+3.1%+3.4%+3.7%+4.0%+4.2%12%
Q3 '25+2.5%+3.4%+3.8%+4.2%+4.6%+5.0%+5.4%45%
Q4 '25+2.4%+3.4%+3.7%+4.1%+4.4%+4.8%
Q1 '26+3.4%+3.7%+4.1%+4.4%+4.8%

Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.