Microsoft
Quarterly revenue
Key Insight
Microsoft booked $81.27B in Q4 2025 revenue, up +16.7% YoY from $69.63B — a re-acceleration from the low-teens pace Microsoft held through 2023–2024 and evidence that Azure AI is now moving the consolidated top line of a $320B-run-rate company, not just a segment line.
$81.3B
Trend YoY growth is +14.5%, slowing by 0.1 pp/year over the last 6Y. Latest: +16.7%, 2.2 pp above trend, a 0.49σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is boosted by 2.3 pp due to an easy comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 15.1% − 0.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage ($B)
Projected value ($B)
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $70.1B | $75.4B | $76.8B | $82.0B | $83.0B | $91.1B | $93.1B | $98.0B | $100.7B | 7% |
| Q2 '25 | $76.4B | $77.8B | $83.2B | $84.4B | $92.7B | $95.0B | $100.1B | $104.7B | 9% | |
| Q3 '25 | $77.7B | $83.6B | $84.9B | $93.4B | $95.8B | $101.1B | $106.5B | 20% | ||
| Q4 '25 | $81.3B | $83.3B | $91.4B | $93.4B | $98.3B | $101.4B | ||||
| Q1 '26 | $83.3B | $91.4B | $93.4B | $98.3B | $101.4B |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | +13.3% | +16.5% | +17.1% | +17.8% | +18.5% | +19.2% | +19.9% | +20.5% | +21.2% | 7% |
| Q2 '25 | +18.1% | +18.5% | +19.5% | +20.4% | +21.3% | +22.3% | +23.2% | +24.1% | 9% | |
| Q3 '25 | +18.4% | +20.1% | +21.2% | +22.2% | +23.3% | +24.4% | +25.5% | 20% | ||
| Q4 '25 | +16.7% | +18.9% | +19.6% | +20.3% | +21.0% | +21.7% | ||||
| Q1 '26 | +18.9% | +19.6% | +20.3% | +21.0% | +21.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.