Manufacturing Labor Productivity
Output per hour in the manufacturing sector, index 2017=100 (FRED OPHMFG, quarterly, SA). Tracks capital-deepening and technology gains in US factories; diverged from the broader economy over the past decade.
99.57Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.3%, slowing by 0.1 pp/year over the last 38Y. Latest: +2.1%, 2.4 pp above trend, a 1.2σ deviation.
Level
YoY %
y = 4.4% − 0.1 pp/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 98.58 | 99.32 | 99.53 | 99.87 | 101.3 | 102.5 | 103.7 | 103.4 | 105.6 | 14% |
| Q2 '25 | 99.36 | 99.59 | 99.94 | 101.4 | 102.6 | 103.8 | 103.5 | 105.8 | 19% | |
| Q3 '25 | 100.2 | 100.0 | 101.5 | 102.7 | 103.9 | 103.6 | 106.0 | 21% | ||
| Q4 '25 | 99.57 | 101.1 | 102.2 | 103.4 | 103.0 | 104.9 | ||||
| Q1 '26 | 101.1 | 102.2 | 103.4 | 103.0 | 104.9 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | +1.2% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.2% | 14% |
| Q2 '25 | +1.8% | +2.2% | +2.5% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.6% | +4.0% | +4.3% | 19% | |
| Q3 '25 | +2.8% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +3.3% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +4.4% | 21% | ||
| Q4 '25 | +2.1% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +3.7% | ||||
| Q1 '26 | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +3.7% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 3Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.