China Industrial Production
Core measure of China's industrial intensity — output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
106.6Index
Trend YoY growth is -0.9%, slowing by 6 bps/year over the last 23Y. Latest: +0.3%, 1.2 pp above trend, a 0.3σ deviation. At current levels, YoY would rise to +2.6% by Jan '24 as comparisons ease.
Level
YoY %
y = 0.5% − 6 bps/yr · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Projected value by forecast vintage (Index)
Projected value (Index)
| Forecast made in | Apr '23 | May '23 | Jun '23 | Jul '23 | Aug '23 | Sep '23 | Oct '23 | Nov '23 | Dec '23 | Jan '24 | Feb '24 | Mar '24 | Apr '24 | May '24 | Jun '24 | Jul '24 | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr '23 | 105.6 | 104.3 | 108.5 | 109.3 | 110.7 | 114.0 | 113.5 | 111.4 | 111.3 | 117.0 | 119.9 | 118.4 | 120.4 | 120.6 | 122.5 | 123.4 | 124.5 | 127.8 | 134.5 | 1082% | ||
| May '23 | 103.5 | 106.3 | 106.9 | 108.0 | 110.9 | 110.2 | 108.0 | 107.7 | 112.5 | 115.1 | 113.5 | 115.2 | 115.1 | 116.7 | 117.4 | 118.2 | 121.2 | 123.1 | 714% | |||
| Jun '23 | 104.4 | 107.7 | 108.8 | 111.7 | 111.0 | 108.7 | 108.4 | 113.2 | 115.7 | 114.1 | 115.7 | 115.6 | 117.2 | 117.9 | 118.7 | 121.6 | 124.3 | 987% | ||||
| Jul '23 | 103.7 | 108.4 | 111.2 | 110.5 | 108.1 | 107.7 | 112.3 | 114.8 | 113.1 | 114.7 | 114.5 | 116.0 | 116.7 | 117.4 | 120.3 | 122.2 | 1104% | |||||
| Aug '23 | 104.5 | 109.8 | 109.0 | 106.5 | 106.0 | 110.0 | 112.3 | 110.5 | 111.9 | 111.6 | 112.9 | 113.4 | 114.0 | 116.6 | 116.4 | 898% | ||||||
| Sep '23 | 104.5 | 107.8 | 105.2 | 104.5 | 108.1 | 110.2 | 108.3 | 109.5 | 109.1 | 110.2 | 110.5 | 110.9 | 113.3 | 111.4 | 760% | |||||||
| Oct '23 | 104.6 | 104.7 | 104.0 | 107.4 | 109.4 | 107.5 | 108.7 | 108.2 | 109.3 | 109.6 | 110.0 | 112.3 | 109.8 | 757% | ||||||||
| Nov '23 | 106.6 | 103.4 | 106.7 | 108.6 | 106.7 | 107.8 | 107.3 | 108.3 | 108.5 | 108.8 | 111.1 | 108.0 | ||||||||||
| Dec '23 | 103.4 | 106.7 | 108.6 | 106.7 | 107.8 | 107.3 | 108.3 | 108.5 | 108.8 | 111.1 | 108.0 |
YoY change forecast
| Forecast made in | Apr '23 | May '23 | Jun '23 | Jul '23 | Aug '23 | Sep '23 | Oct '23 | Nov '23 | Dec '23 | Jan '24 | Feb '24 | Mar '24 | Apr '24 | May '24 | Jun '24 | Jul '24 | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Oct '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr '23 | +1.3% | +3.5% | +4.5% | +5.4% | +6.3% | +7.2% | +8.1% | +9.0% | +9.9% | +10.8% | +11.8% | +12.6% | +13.5% | +14.4% | +15.4% | +16.3% | +17.2% | +18.1% | +19.0% | +19.9% | +20.8% | 1082% |
| May '23 | -1.4% | +2.3% | +3.0% | +3.6% | +4.3% | +5.0% | +5.7% | +6.3% | +7.0% | +7.7% | +8.3% | +9.0% | +9.6% | +10.3% | +11.0% | +11.6% | +12.3% | +13.0% | +13.6% | +14.3% | 714% | |
| Jun '23 | +7.5% | +3.8% | +4.4% | +5.1% | +5.7% | +6.4% | +7.0% | +7.7% | +8.3% | +8.9% | +9.6% | +10.2% | +10.9% | +11.5% | +12.2% | +12.8% | +13.4% | +14.1% | +14.7% | 987% | ||
| Jul '23 | +3.0% | +4.0% | +4.6% | +5.2% | +5.8% | +6.4% | +7.0% | +7.6% | +8.1% | +8.7% | +9.3% | +9.9% | +10.4% | +11.0% | +11.6% | +12.2% | +12.8% | +13.4% | 1104% | |||
| Aug '23 | +0.6% | +3.3% | +3.8% | +4.2% | +4.6% | +5.1% | +5.5% | +5.9% | +6.3% | +6.8% | +7.2% | +7.6% | +8.1% | +8.5% | +8.9% | +9.4% | +9.8% | 898% | ||||
| Sep '23 | +0.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +4.9% | +5.2% | +5.5% | +5.7% | +6.0% | +6.3% | +6.6% | 760% | |||||
| Oct '23 | +0.4% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +4.4% | +4.6% | +4.9% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +5.6% | 757% | ||||||
| Nov '23 | +0.3% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +4.4% | ||||||||
| Dec '23 | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +4.4% |
Forecasts use ordinary least-squares linear regression fitted to the YoY change series over a rolling 1Y window. Each row shows a vintage — the forecast as it would have appeared at that point in time. Projected values apply the forecasted YoY change to the prior year's level, chaining forward where actuals are unavailable. MAPE measures forecast accuracy against realized values. These are mechanical trend extrapolations, not economic models.