Residential Real Estate
Owner-occupied real estate including vacant land and mobile homes at market value
47.9$T
Trend YoY growth is -1.4%, slowing by 39 bps/month over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.1%, 3.5 pp above trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 18.6% − 39 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | +3.7% | +3.2% | +2.7% | +2.3% | +1.9% | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -6.3% | -6.7% |
| Dec '24 | +3.2% | +2.7% | +2.3% | +1.9% | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -2.7% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -6.3% | -6.7% | |
| Jan '25 | +3.6% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | ||
| Feb '25 | +3.3% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | |||
| Mar '25 | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | ||||
| Apr '25 | +2.5% | +2.2% | +1.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.7% | |||||
| May '25 | +2.2% | +1.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.7% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | +1.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.7% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.8% | -3.1% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.8% | -3.1% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -2.8% | -3.1% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | +1.8% | +1.6% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.0% |