Residential Real Estate

Owner-occupied real estate including vacant land and mobile homes at market value

47.9$T

Trend YoY growth is -1.4%, slowing by 39 bps/month over the last 4Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 8 consecutive periods. Latest: +2.1%, 3.5 pp above trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct 1.

Level

YoY %

y = 18.6% 39 bps/mo · t

Deviation from trend

Forecast

Rolling 1Y trend forecast

Forecast made inNov '24Dec '24Jan '25Feb '25Mar '25Apr '25May '25Jun '25Jul '25Aug '25Sep '25Oct '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Nov '24+3.7%+3.2%+2.7%+2.3%+1.9%+1.4%+1.0%+0.5%+0.1%-0.4%-0.8%-1.3%-1.8%-2.2%-2.7%-3.1%-3.5%-4.0%-4.4%-4.9%-5.3%-5.8%-6.3%-6.7%
Dec '24+3.2%+2.7%+2.3%+1.9%+1.4%+1.0%+0.5%+0.1%-0.4%-0.8%-1.3%-1.8%-2.2%-2.7%-3.1%-3.5%-4.0%-4.4%-4.9%-5.3%-5.8%-6.3%-6.7%
Jan '25+3.6%+3.3%+3.0%+2.7%+2.4%+2.1%+1.8%+1.5%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.8%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%
Feb '25+3.3%+3.0%+2.7%+2.4%+2.1%+1.8%+1.5%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.8%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%
Mar '25+3.0%+2.7%+2.4%+2.1%+1.8%+1.5%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.8%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%
Apr '25+2.5%+2.2%+1.9%+1.6%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-0.7%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%-2.7%
May '25+2.2%+1.9%+1.6%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-0.7%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%-2.7%
Jun '25+1.9%+1.6%+1.3%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.2%-0.1%-0.4%-0.7%-1.0%-1.3%-1.6%-1.9%-2.2%-2.5%-2.7%
Jul '25+1.7%+1.4%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.6%-0.9%-1.2%-1.5%-1.8%-2.2%-2.5%-2.8%-3.1%
Aug '25+1.4%+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.6%-0.9%-1.2%-1.5%-1.8%-2.2%-2.5%-2.8%-3.1%
Sep '25+1.0%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.2%-0.6%-0.9%-1.2%-1.5%-1.8%-2.2%-2.5%-2.8%-3.1%
Oct '25+1.8%+1.6%+1.5%+1.3%+1.2%+1.1%+0.9%+0.8%+0.6%+0.5%+0.3%+0.2%+0.0%