Pension & Retirement
Pension entitlements held by households and nonprofits — deferred compensation claims
34.6$T
Trend YoY growth is +7.0%, accelerating by 16 bps/month over the last 4Y. Latest: +6.0%, 95 bps below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 1.4 pp due to an tough comparison base from Oct 1.
Level
YoY %
y = −1.3% + 16 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov '24 | +7.5% | +7.4% | +7.4% | +7.3% | +7.2% | +7.1% | +7.0% | +6.9% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.6% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.6% | +5.5% |
| Dec '24 | +7.4% | +7.4% | +7.3% | +7.2% | +7.1% | +7.0% | +6.9% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.6% | +6.6% | +6.5% | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.6% | +5.5% | |
| Jan '25 | +4.2% | +3.6% | +3.1% | +2.6% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.3% | -2.9% | -3.4% | -3.9% | -4.5% | -5.0% | -5.6% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -7.2% | ||
| Feb '25 | +3.6% | +3.1% | +2.6% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.3% | -2.9% | -3.4% | -3.9% | -4.5% | -5.0% | -5.6% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -7.2% | |||
| Mar '25 | +3.1% | +2.6% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.3% | -2.9% | -3.4% | -3.9% | -4.5% | -5.0% | -5.6% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -7.2% | ||||
| Apr '25 | +3.3% | +2.7% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.8% | +0.2% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.0% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -4.9% | -5.5% | -6.1% | -6.8% | -7.4% | -8.0% | |||||
| May '25 | +2.7% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.8% | +0.2% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.0% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -4.9% | -5.5% | -6.1% | -6.8% | -7.4% | -8.0% | ||||||
| Jun '25 | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.8% | +0.2% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.0% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -4.9% | -5.5% | -6.1% | -6.8% | -7.4% | -8.0% | |||||||
| Jul '25 | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +4.2% | ||||||||
| Aug '25 | +4.7% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +4.2% | |||||||||
| Sep '25 | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +4.2% | ||||||||||
| Oct '25 | +6.3% | +6.7% | +7.0% | +7.3% | +7.7% | +8.0% | +8.3% | +8.6% | +9.0% | +9.3% | +9.6% | +10.0% | +10.3% |