China Trade Balance
Net exports — surplus reflects manufacturing dominance and domestic demand weakness.
$102.5B
Trend YoY growth is +17.4%, slowing by 11 bps/month over the last 5Y. Latest: +10.3%, 7.1 pp below trend, a 0.2σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 28.0 pp due to an tough comparison base from Dec 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 23.7% − 11 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '25 | +61.3% | +67.1% | +72.3% | +78.1% | +83.7% | +89.5% | +95.1% | +100.8% | +106.6% | +112.2% | +118.0% | +123.6% | +129.4% | +135.2% | +140.4% | +146.2% | +151.8% | +157.5% | +163.1% | +168.9% | +174.7% | +180.3% | +186.1% | +191.7% |
| Feb '25 | +52.5% | +57.2% | +62.4% | +67.4% | +72.6% | +77.6% | +82.7% | +87.9% | +92.9% | +98.1% | +103.1% | +108.3% | +113.5% | +118.2% | +123.4% | +128.4% | +133.6% | +138.6% | +143.8% | +149.0% | +154.0% | +159.2% | +164.2% | |
| Mar '25 | +54.0% | +57.9% | +61.8% | +65.8% | +69.7% | +73.6% | +77.6% | +81.5% | +85.5% | +89.3% | +93.3% | +97.3% | +100.9% | +104.9% | +108.8% | +112.8% | +116.6% | +120.6% | +124.6% | +128.5% | +132.5% | +136.3% | ||
| Apr '25 | +45.3% | +46.8% | +48.4% | +50.0% | +51.6% | +53.2% | +54.8% | +56.4% | +57.9% | +59.5% | +61.1% | +62.6% | +64.2% | +65.7% | +67.4% | +68.9% | +70.5% | +72.1% | +73.7% | +75.3% | +76.8% | |||
| May '25 | +39.1% | +39.6% | +40.1% | +40.6% | +41.0% | +41.5% | +42.0% | +42.5% | +43.0% | +43.4% | +43.9% | +44.4% | +44.8% | +45.3% | +45.8% | +46.3% | +46.8% | +47.2% | +47.7% | +48.2% | ||||
| Jun '25 | +34.0% | +33.8% | +33.7% | +33.5% | +33.4% | +33.2% | +33.1% | +32.9% | +32.8% | +32.6% | +32.5% | +32.3% | +32.2% | +32.0% | +31.9% | +31.7% | +31.5% | +31.4% | +31.2% | |||||
| Jul '25 | +25.3% | +23.4% | +21.6% | +19.7% | +17.9% | +16.1% | +14.2% | +12.3% | +10.6% | +8.7% | +6.9% | +5.1% | +3.2% | +1.4% | -0.5% | -2.3% | -4.2% | -6.0% | ||||||
| Aug '25 | +17.5% | +14.5% | +11.6% | +8.6% | +5.7% | +2.7% | -0.3% | -3.0% | -6.1% | -9.0% | -12.0% | -14.9% | -17.9% | -20.9% | -23.8% | -26.8% | -29.7% | |||||||
| Sep '25 | +7.6% | +2.8% | -2.1% | -6.9% | -11.8% | -16.7% | -21.2% | -26.1% | -30.9% | -35.8% | -40.6% | -45.5% | -50.4% | -55.2% | -60.1% | -64.9% | ||||||||
| Oct '25 | +3.3% | -1.2% | -5.5% | -10.0% | -14.5% | -18.5% | -23.0% | -27.3% | -31.8% | -36.1% | -40.6% | -45.1% | -49.4% | -53.9% | -58.2% | |||||||||
| Nov '25 | +1.2% | -3.1% | -7.5% | -12.0% | -16.0% | -20.4% | -24.7% | -29.2% | -33.5% | -37.9% | -42.4% | -46.7% | -51.1% | -55.4% | ||||||||||
| Dec '25 | +0.5% | -3.6% | -7.6% | -11.2% | -15.3% | -19.2% | -23.2% | -27.1% | -31.1% | -35.2% | -39.1% | -43.1% | -47.0% |