China Merchandise Exports
Direct measure of China's export machine — total goods shipped to the world.
$323.8B
Trend YoY growth is -1.5%, slowing by 29 bps/month over the last 5Y. Deviations have remained above trend for 12 consecutive periods. Latest: +5.3%, 6.8 pp above trend, a 0.7σ deviation. The latest YoY reading is depressed by 7.2 pp due to an tough comparison base from Dec 1.
Level
YoY %
y = 14.6% − 29 bps/mo · t
Deviation from trend
Forecast
Rolling 1Y trend forecast
| Forecast made in | Jan '25 | Feb '25 | Mar '25 | Apr '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Jul '25 | Aug '25 | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 | Sep '26 | Oct '26 | Nov '26 | Dec '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan '25 | +10.8% | +11.9% | +13.0% | +14.1% | +15.3% | +16.4% | +17.6% | +18.7% | +19.9% | +21.0% | +22.2% | +23.3% | +24.5% | +25.6% | +26.7% | +27.8% | +29.0% | +30.1% | +31.3% | +32.4% | +33.6% | +34.7% | +35.9% | +37.0% |
| Feb '25 | +9.0% | +9.7% | +10.6% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +13.0% | +13.8% | +14.7% | +15.5% | +16.3% | +17.1% | +17.9% | +18.8% | +19.5% | +20.3% | +21.2% | +22.0% | +22.8% | +23.6% | +24.4% | +25.3% | +26.1% | +26.9% | |
| Mar '25 | +8.5% | +8.9% | +9.3% | +9.8% | +10.2% | +10.6% | +11.0% | +11.4% | +11.8% | +12.2% | +12.6% | +13.0% | +13.4% | +13.8% | +14.2% | +14.6% | +15.0% | +15.4% | +15.8% | +16.2% | +16.6% | +17.0% | ||
| Apr '25 | +7.2% | +7.2% | +7.2% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +7.1% | +7.0% | +7.0% | +7.0% | +7.0% | +7.0% | +7.0% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +6.9% | |||
| May '25 | +6.5% | +6.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.6% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.0% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | ||||
| Jun '25 | +6.1% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.0% | +4.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +3.8% | |||||
| Jul '25 | +6.0% | +5.8% | +5.6% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +4.9% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +3.8% | +3.7% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +3.1% | +3.0% | ||||||
| Aug '25 | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +5.0% | +4.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | |||||||
| Sep '25 | +5.4% | +5.1% | +4.8% | +4.5% | +4.2% | +3.9% | +3.6% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +1.2% | +0.9% | ||||||||
| Oct '25 | +3.9% | +3.6% | +3.2% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +2.1% | +1.7% | +1.4% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.2% | |||||||||
| Nov '25 | +4.6% | +4.3% | +4.1% | +3.8% | +3.6% | +3.4% | +3.1% | +2.9% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +2.2% | +1.9% | +1.7% | +1.5% | ||||||||||
| Dec '25 | +4.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +3.8% | +3.7% | +3.6% |